Trading at Dimensional: Seeking Stable Outcomes in Unstable Times


In the first of a four-part series on real-world fixed income investing, Dave Plecha, Global Head of Fixed Income at Dimensional, discusses the importance of having an investment process that can weather any type of market. He explains why high volatility in the 2020 bond market created pressures on bond index funds, which have less flexibility in what securities they hold and when. He also discusses how balancing stability and flexibility enabled Dimensional to deliver value during that period.

“We could execute our strategies in periods of normal market volatility and in periods of high volatility. That’s how I view robustness.”


You know, Dave, certainly here at Dimensional, we're big advocates of indexing, we know the whole history of David while working in the mid 1970's on the creation of one of the first index funds. But we also know that, you know, with an indexing approach sometimes it can be a little bit ridged. And if we look back at the first part of 2020, you see that really coming into play with some of the indexes in the bond market. We did, for sure, you know, we talk about, you know, robust processes, we use that term a lot, I hear that term a lot of robust process and I think well, how, if someone asked me to explain "What do you mean by robust?" You know ,I started out years and years ago as a engineer, and I'll tell you the way an engineer would think about that word in a process. He would say, "Well, a process has inputs and then something happens, the machine makes something, and then there's something that comes out." And if there are just minor variations in inputs, and there's always gonna be variations in inputs, maybe it's the stuff that you get from your supplier or maybe even the temperature of the building. If minor changes to inputs cause significant changes to the outputs, well, that's not a robust process, a robust process can deal with small variations input and give a good stable outcome. So how would that relate to the investment process? Well, I would sort of say, well, variations in inputs, think about that as market volatility. So if you develop some process that works perfectly fine in normal volatility market environments, and then we go through a period of high volatility, your whole process falls apart, well, then I would say that's not a robust process. So we had some examples of things that you would think would be a robust process. Sound very robust, like, let's say bond indexing, for example. So, you know, that seems pretty simple, even people who've been doing it for a long time, but let's go back to March of 2020 earlier this year, where we had a very, very volatile time in the market, lots of activity, bid-ask spreads widened out tremendously, credit spreads widened out tremendously as well, index providers, they knew what was gonna happen. When they got to the normal process of that index provider reconstituting their benchmark, which they do every month end and there are certain names that drop out, very simple things often, you know, if the bond gets below a year, it drops out of the index and new bonds come in. If anything gets credit, downgraded below the index range, it gets dropped out. Index providers knew that just a normal reconstitution was gonna put so much pressure on their process, they would not be able to manage their process the way they normally did. And they literally went and appealed to index providers to not do their normal reconstitution, to delay it by a month to let them sort of get their arms around what they were doing. And the index providers actually complied, they went along with it. So, I mean, there's an example of a process that was obviously not robust, even something as simple. Now again, you know, even the more obvious ones that were not robust is, "Oh, I'm gonna pick the winners or I'm gonna try to time the market." You know, many of those that disastrous results in the month of March. If you look at our strategies, look, we were in the exact same market, the same volatility, the same bid-ask spread widening, we were in the exact same market conditions, but our strategies held up quite well through March and April and beyond, because we built a robust processes that could perform well, and we could execute our strategies in periods of normal market market volatility and in periods of high volatility. So I think in the end, that's how I view robustness, and I think sometimes you have to get put to the test to back up what you're saying. We've always said our processes are robust and sometimes you have to be dragged through the fire a little bit, and we prove that we were.

 

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